Draft Philosophy 101
Rules for Drafting. The Ten Commandments. Draft Philosophy 101. Call this article whatever you’d like, but understand that this is where we lay out the draft strategy you should employ if you want to win your league. Over the years, we have learned that this is the path that most often leads to success. And we’re here to help you succeed! So ignore these rules at your peril:
Avoid risk with your first four picks. The first four rounds are where you build the core of your team. These are the guys whom you need to produce to have a successful fantasy season. Especially in Rounds 1 and 2, you want guys that have both high ceilings and high floors. This season, that means you should zero in on guys like Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Bijan Robinson, and fade guys like Jonathan Taylor (hasn’t finished as a top-30 RB since 2021 and now has a QB likely to vulture rushing scores), Marvin Harrison (rookie being drafted at his ceiling, with no consideration for his floor), and Davante Adams (age and QB situation).
Draft at least one running back in the first couple rounds. There’s a marked difference in the running backs who are available early and the ones who are available late. There is no position that is at more of a premium than the elite running backs. As of the preseason ADP, Yahoo! projects 10 backs to go in the first two rounds, and you’ll need to snag at least one of them to be competitive at the position. Right now, those 10 are Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, and De’Von Achane.
But after those dudes, the decline in talent is pretty steep. You want to have at least one solid guy you can rely on to be a consistent point-producer at the running back spot. Make sure one of these guys winds up on your team: CMC, Breece, Bijan, Achane, or Gibbs. My favorite target early on has been Achane, because I’m always able to wait until late Round 2 and can still pair him with an elite wide receiver.
Draft 4 wide receivers in the first 6 rounds. We hear it every year: wide receiver is crazy deep. Except, it isn’t. It just isn’t. There are very few “elite” guys. And those guys are almost all gone by the end of Round 6. But if you load up early, you’re (a) going to have an advantage over your league-mates at that position (which is even more critical in a PPR format) and (b) you’re going to have depth when injuries and bye weeks hit. In leagues that don’t specify how many players you have to roster at each position, I do not tend to have backups at quarterback, tight end, kicker, and defense (you can always stream these positions during bye weeks); I have 2-3 backup running backs; and I reserve the vast majority of my bench for wide receivers. As we have discovered over the past several years through researching and writing the Weekly Hail Mary column, wide receiver is the most difficult position to stream. There are always useful quarterbacks and tight ends out there on the wire. And the attrition at running back due to injury means there are typically some useful players out there to fill that spot. But after the first few weeks of the season, there are rarely any useful wide receivers. And in most leagues, that’s the position where you have the most starting slots.
So basically, you are going to need a deep bench to be able to weather your bye weeks and injuries, which inevitably strike in a violent game like football. Your plan going into the draft should be to put together a well-stocked stable of wideouts, which will be anchored by the 4 guys you’re going to draft in the first 6 rounds. And then you’ll just keep hammering at the position throughout your draft. You will find some of our favorite values elsewhere in this draft kit.Wait on quarterback. Generally speaking, unless you’re in a Superflex or 2-QB league, you should never draft your quarterback before Round 5. And I’ll try to persuade you to wait even longer, if I can. By ADP, the top-drafted quarterback this preseason is projected to be Josh Allen, and he’s going, on average, as the 17th pick off the board. That’s just bonkers! There is serious opportunity cost in drafting your quarterback that early, as you’re bypassing the opportunity to take valuable starting RBs or WRs there. Conversely, the 12th quarterback - i.e., the last guy deemed a fantasy starter - is Tua Tagovailoa, whom you can get in Round 8. And if Tua isn’t your cup of tea, you can get Kirk Cousins. Or Justin Herbert. Or Matthew Stafford. Or Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels, if you want a rookie. Listen, folks: you can win pretty easily with Justin Herbert and a 2nd round WR (think Brandon Aiyuk or Chris Olave); it’s a lot harder to win with Josh Allen and a 9th round WR (guys like Curtis Samuel or Brian Thomas Jr.). Useful quarterbacks will last in your drafts; useful wide receivers will not.
This season, there are more than 12 viable starting QBs for fantasy, meaning that even if you’re the last guy in your league to take your quarterback, you’re going to wind up with one of these guys: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Tua Tagovailoa. Barring injury, you can have a viable fantasy squad with any of those guys as your quarterback. I’m likely waiting to be one of the last guys in my league to take a passer, as that’s going to allow me to load up at the other positions first, where talent is more scarce. The only exception I’d make is if one of my top-rated QBs “falls” to Round 5. Then I’d think long and hard about taking him, but I’m still not certain I would do it.
Avoid the running back “dead zone.” The “dead zone” is the area of the draft where running backs historically are unlikely to return value. This generally occurs in Rounds 3-6 (though some believe it doesn’t start until Round 4). In any event, this is the area of the draft where managers “reach” for running backs due to positional scarcity, and the players rarely deliver points commensurate with their draft slot. Conversely, the return on investment is pretty good in these rounds at wide receiver and tight end. So, really, this dead zone concept ties into Rule #3: Load up on wide receivers in the first six rounds. Generally speaking, I try to come out of the first six rounds with my Anchor RB, 4 wide receivers, and a tight end. If for some reason I took at quarterback in the first six rounds (i.e. in Round 5 or 6), I probably did it at the expense of getting a tight end. Very rarely, I will wind up with a dead zone running back, but only if it’s a particular player I’ve identified beforehand as a second round talent. The only guy that really fits the bill this year is Kenneth Walker III, and that may be a stretch. The “dead zone” guys I want nothing to do with this season are Rachaad White, Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White, James Conner, and Raheem Mostert. And some of these guys are decent players. Rachaad White, for example, is an excellent RB2; it’s just that at that range of the draft (round 3), I see more value in the wide receivers available.
Instead of the dead zone guys, try to get your RB2 in Rounds 7-10. There are several useful players going in that range this year, like D’Andre Swift (fresh off a big money contract in Chicago), Jonathon Brooks (should be RB1 for the Panthers as soon as he’s healthy from his torn ACL), and Gus Edwards (should get double-digit scores in a Harbaugh/Roman run-first offense in Los Angeles). You’ll be fine with those guys as your RB2. Behind them, take rookies with a chance to earn significant role - think players like Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Tyrone Tracy, and Jaylen Wright - and players who could smash if they’re able to beat out their competition: guys like Austin Ekeler, Zach Charbonnet, and Jerome Ford. Don’t worry about what might happen if one of your top two guys gets hurt. There are running backs available all the time due to injury; just check out our Weekly Hail Mary column for advice on who to pick up that week. Running back, believe it or not, is one of the easiest positions to stream. Even mediocre talents can put up useful weeks when they’re getting fed 20 touches a game.Don’t draft injured, suspended, or unemployed players. Ok, so I’ll admit, this is more of a guideline than a hard-and-fast rule, as what I really mean is “don’t draft injured or suspended players if you’ll need to rely on them.” If you’re drafting a hurt player with one of your last picks and you immediately toss him on IR and pick someone else up, I’ve got no problem with that. What I’m trying to get you to avoid is using premium picks on players who won’t be available to you for significant chunks of the season.
There are so few games each NFL season that every single one matters. You really can’t afford to go into a season relying on players who are sure to miss games. For this reason, I’m out on longtime fantasy stud Nick Chubb this year. His injury was just too debilitating, and combined with his age, I just can’t justify the risk.
Generally speaking, I am not going to be drafting any injured or suspended player as a starter or key backup, with the exception of maybe Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks (and even then I’m hedging by taking Chuba Hubbard late). I’m trying to minimize risk to maximize my chances of success. And I’m also not drafting guys in the single-digit rounds who have yet to sign with a team. Unless I can get them late, or it’s a best ball league,Try to get a difference-maker at tight end. I’m not advocating going overboard here. And I wouldn’t take any of the tight ends in the first two rounds, as the opportunity cost is too high. But I’m fine with Travis Kelce in Round 3, I’m smashing Trey McBride and Mark Andrews in Round 5, and I love Kyle Pitts in Round 8. You can gain a tremendous advantage on at least half of your league-mates by having one of those stellar point producers in your lineup. If I don’t get one of those guys , I’m going to be the last guy in my league to take a tight end and hope he pans out, or just stream the position. Just focus on athletic guys tied to good quarterbacks. Mike Gesicki or Luke Musgrave, anyone?
Emphasize youth, though not necessarily rookies, at the skill positions. It’s a young man’s game. And generally speaking, the players who tend to outperform their ADP are in their first couple years in the league. By a time a guy is in year 3 or 4, we pretty much know what he is. But rookies? Second year players? There can be value in the uncertainty; they’re often priced where they are because we don’t yet know what they are. Second-year players who did not have All-Pro rookie seasons often present the best values.
This year, I’m intrigued by Bryce Young in Carolina. He’s finally got a legit wide receiver in Diontae Johnson, and the Panthers spent their first round pick on an ultra-athletic wideout in Xavier Legette. They also drafted the best RB in this year’s draft, Jonathon Brooks, in Round 2. Let’s see what last year’s #1 pick can do with an actual supporting cast around him.
At wide receiver, this year I’d be looking at Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Mims, and Dontayvion Wicks. All showed promise as rookies or had the draft capital to suggest they’ll get more opportunity this year. At running back, it would be Zach Charbonnet and Tyjae Spears given their draft capital and team situation (De’Von Achane has already broken out, so he’s not on this list.) Chase Brown could also be a decent late flier, as the early reports from Bengals camp is that he is getting the majority of reps with the 1s.
It would not be a surprise to see any of these guys take the next step forward into fantasy stardom. Given their relative cost, you’re probably better off taking them at ADP than some of the veterans at their same positions going at the same range. You know what you’re getting with the vets, so there isn’t much upside to them. These younger cats may have a bit more risk to their profile, but they also have substantially more upside.
Take your kicker and defense late, but before the last round of your draft. Thankfully, by now most savvy managers have abandoned the idea of taking kickers and defenses early. However, many have taken the strategy to the opposite extreme, waiting until the final two frames of the draft to grab their kicker and defense. Think that through, folks: if everyone in your league is doing that, where is the edge to be gained? Instead, I like to start this run in the third-to-last round of the draft and grab my kicker. If you get Justin Tucker or Daniel Carlson, you’ve probably got a “leg up” (dad joke!) on your competition most weeks at that position. All you’ve really sacrificed is a long-shot RB or WR, and the guy you’ll be taking in the final round at one of those positions is probably just as much of a long shot/lotto ticket.
I say you’ll be taking your long shot RB or WR in the final round because in the second-to-last round you’ll be taking your defense. I’m definitely one who advocates streaming defenses, but nevertheless I still try to identify a defense that has a soft schedule the first few weeks of the season so that I might not have to drop that D right away after Week 1. If you’re taking your defense in the second to last round, and the rest of your league is waiting until the final frame, then again, you’re gaining an advantage. Little advantages like that add up in this game.
Scratch lottery tickets in the double digit rounds. This is basically the opposite of Rule #1. In the early rounds, you want high ceiling, high floor. In the later rounds, you want high ceiling, low floor. These latter rounds are where you do your gambling.
Essentially, this Rule is similar to Rule #8. You want to be throwing darts at high-upside young guys, or guys in uncertain situations, in round 10 and beyond. These rounds present some of the best opportunities to get significant ROI compared to ADP. If these players don’t work out, who cares? Your opportunity cost wasn’t significant, and you can just cut bait and pick up another player off the waiver wire.
So focus on young players with high upside. For example, if I’m drafting a wideout in the double digit rounds, I’m always opting for Xavier Legette over Tyler Boyd. Boyd ain’t winning you your fantasy league. Legette might not either, but there’s a least a chance of it with Legette. Similarly, I’m taking Malachi Corley over Darius Slayton. We know what Slayton is in New York’s offense (a perimeter player who has a couple good games a year); we don’t yet know what Corley is. What if he’s a star? I’m taking RBs Audric Estime (ADP 219) and Isaac Guerendo (239) over someone like A.J. Dillon (199) every time. Dillon isn’t taking over Green Bay’s backfield unless Josh Jacobs gets hurt (and even then he’s probably fighting with Marshawn Lloyd for touches), but we know he’s going to be underwhelming even if he gets the lead role. Conversely, Estime and Guerendo are unknowns, and could emerge as potential league winners if things break right.
The takeaway: Don’t waste valuable draft capital on marginal veteran talents. There’s no upside there. Instead, scratch lottery tickets in the double-digit rounds.
We can’t guarantee that you’ll win a championship if you follow these rules. But you’re going to be pretty darn likely to make it to the fantasy playoffs. Once you’re there, anything can happen.