Using OC Historical Trends to Predict Performance

“Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” Any financial advisor worth her salt is going to tell you that. And while it’s admittedly true that past performance is no guarantee of future results, it’s nevertheless a pretty darn good indicator of likely future outcomes.

We use that logic all the time when we are evaluating players. Look at the back of the dude’s football card. It’s a pretty good indicator of who he is as a talent. Here at HailMaryFootball, we take that analysis one step further. We look not only at the back of the player’s football card; we look at the back of his coach’s card, as well. There are insightful nuggets to be gleaned by analyzing each team’s offensive coordinator, to see how they have measured up in seasons past. That gives us some clues as to how the fantasy players in their offenses might be expected to perform in 2023. We’ll examine the historical performance of each team’s offensive coordinator, going division-by-division and starting with the AFC.

Buffalo Bills (Joe Brady). Brady’s offenses finished top 10 in all meaningful categories last year, which was a noticeable change from the offenses he coordinated in Carolina in 2020 and 2021. Back then, his offenses were in the bottom third of the league in every meaningful category, save one: rushing TDs. In Carolina his offenses were 10th and 13th in the league, respectively, in rushing TDs, and last year in Buffalo he ranked 5th. To me, this bodes well for Josh Allen’s rushing production (especially after the trade of Stefon Diggs), and it also suggests to me that 4th round rookie Ray Davis might be heavily involved at the goal line. It theoretically could mean more rushing scores for James Cook, but I’m not banking on that.

Miami Dolphins (Frank Smith). Smith (and Mike McDaniel) coordinate a great offense. His offenses have never finished worse than 4th in passing yards or passing touchdowns. Last year, the team significantly improved the run game, going from 25th in yards and 22nd in scores to 6th and 1st, respectively. Any way you slice it, this is an elite offense to target. Sure, Tyreek Hill is an easy first round pick, but Tua Tagovailoa is a smart selection for those drafters adopting the late-round quarterback strategy, and Jaylen Waddle makes a ton of sense as a round 3/4 target (especially with his contingent upside if Hill suffers an injury). I love De’Von Achane as a potential league-winner at RB, but am equally bullish on Raheem Mostert (despite his age) and rookie Jaylen Wright at their relatively-low ADPs. This offense is going to score, and score in bunches, and you want a piece of it. Also, I’ve written previously about my love (pre-draft) for Malik Washington. I didn’t like the draft capital (6th round), but I’m a big believer in the talent. He’s pretty much free right now. I wouldn’t necessarily draft him, but I’d keep a really close eye on him as the season progresses.

New England Patriots (Alex Van Pelt). This guy gets a lot of opportunities for someone with a fairly mediocre resume. He was the offensive coordinator for the 2009 Buffalo Bills, and then ran the Cleveland Browns offense from 2020-2023. He’s had several offenses that ranked in the top 7 in rushing yards and scores (thanks, Nick Chubb!) but his passing offenses always leave a good bit to be desired. In his 5 seasons as a coordinator, he’s never had a passing offenses in the top half of the league in passing yards, and only once had a passing offenses in the top half of the league (13th overall) in passing scores. It makes me question how much “development” there will be for Drake Maye under Van Pelt. However, it does probably bode well for Rhamondre Stevenson and free-agent-signee Antonio Gibson.

New York Jets (Nathaniel Hackett). Hackett has 10 years’ worth of experience as a head coach or offensive coordinator in the NFL: 2013-2014 with the Buffalo Bills, 2016-2018 with the Jacksonville Jaguars, 2019-2021 with the Green Bay Packers, 2022 with the Denver Broncos, and last year with the Jets. Generally speaking, his offenses are league average (or worse) unless he’s with Aaron Rodgers. Well, guess what kids, he should be back with Aaron Rodgers this year. In his last two seasons with Rodgers at the helm, his teams finished 1st and 4th in passing scores, and top 10 in passing yards, overall yards, and overall scoring. If you believe Rodgers will hold up, this is an offense to heavily target (especially since guys like Rodgers, Mike Williams, Malachi Corley, Tyler Conklin, and Braelon Allen are all dirt cheap). But if you believe the 40-year-old Rodgers has reached the end of the line, you probably want to stay away: Hackett has had a bottom-3 offense in scoring each of the past two seasons.

Baltimore Ravens (Todd Monken). Monken has had some reasonable success as an offensive coordinator. He has had a top-10 team in totals yards in 3 of his past 4 seasons calling plays (for Baltimore, Cleveland, and Tampa). His teams have improved in rush TD rank every season (from 29th, to 25th, to 23rd, to 15th, to 4th). Plus, he has proven to be able to adapt to his personnel. In 2017 and 2018, he ran a high-flying passing attack with the Bucs, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, and finished 4th and 1st in passing yards.. Last season with the Ravens, he shifted tactics, finishing the league with the #1 offense in rushing yards and #4 offense in rushing scores. This bodes well for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, even if Henry does carry some red flags due to his advanced age. Note also that they had a better than expected passing attack, finishing 12th in passing scores despite being without Mark Andrews for most of the second half of the season. With a healthy Andrews and the expected continued development of Zay Flowers, this may be a better-than-expected aerial offense.

Cincinnati Bengals (Dan Pitcher). Pitcher is new to the OC job in Cincinnati, but I don’t expect much to change because head coach Zac Taylor continues to call plays. Taylor’s offenses are actually a bit overrated; in more than half of his seasons his offenses have finished in the bottom half of the league in yardage, and only once have they finished inside the top 10. His rushing offenses have been particularly poor, never finishing better than 23rd in total yards, and actually finishing bottom-5 each of the past 2 seasons. It’s hard to see the rushing situation getting better by jettisoning Joe Mixon and replacing him with a combo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown, the latter of whom are both easy to fade this year. Where fantasy managers can really cash in with the Bengals offense is (surprise surprise) the passing attack. The Bengals have finished in the top third of the league in passing scores each of the past three seasons - including last year, when Joe Burrow missed the second half of the season with a wrist injury. If you count only the seasons where Burrow has been healthy, they have not finished worse than 7th in passing yards or passing scores. In 2022, they had more passing scores than all but one team in the league. So - and I’m sure this is tremendously insightful - target Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. And maybe sprinkle in some Mike Gesicki and Jermaine Burton on the cheap.

Cleveland Browns (Ken Dorsey). This dude simply did not get a fair shake as the offensive coordinator for the Bills. He was the scapegoat when they lost some close games last year, but it clearly wasn’t his fault. At the time he was fired, his Bills squad was 4th in total yards, 6th in scoring, 7th in rushing yards, 5th in rushing scores, 8th in passing yards, and 7th in passing scores. In short, he was running an ELITE offense, and it largely mirrored his ranks from the year prior. This bodes well for the 2024 Cleveland Browns, nearly all of whom are massive values in drafts. The first guy getting drafted is Amari Cooper around Round 4. Everyone else is dirt cheap. Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Deshaun Watson, and Jerome Ford all present screaming values this year. I’m a bit wary of Nick Chubb due to his knee injury, but I’m more tolerant of taking him in best ball in the hopes that he’ll be useful in the second half of the year.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Arthur Smith). It’s hard to find nice things to say about son-of-a-billionaire Arthur Smith. He seemed completely inept at times while the head coach of the Falcons from 2021-2023. But to be fair to him, there are some positives with his profile. First, in five seasons as Atlanta’s head coach or Tennessee’s offensive coordinator, he generally posted solid rushing offenses. In 3 of those 5 seasons he had a top-3 offense in rushing yards, and in 4 of 5 he was top-10. The only outlier season was the 2021 Falcons, which were limited by their personnel more than anything, as their top running backs were Mike Davis (JAG) and Cordarrelle Patterson, a converted wide receiver whom Smith actually turned into a pretty useful fantasy asset. So I’m giving Smith the benefit of the doubt with rushers, and believe both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren could be values this season. On the flip side, he’s never had a top-15 passing offenses in terms of yardage, so I’m not particularly enthused about what he might be able to do with Russell Wilson and the George Pickens-led WR corps. I’m a big more enthusiastic about Pat Freiermuth - he was able to coax a 1,000 yard rookie season out of Kyle Pitts and made Jonnu Smith a thing last year - but only at cost. Freiermuth may well end up being the second option in the passing game for that team, so that could be useful. I’m also a bit more interested in the team if Justin Fields ends up starting, because his skill set seems to better reflect how Smith likes to run his offenses. He’s a rich man’s Desmond Ridder, if you will.

Houston Texans (Bobby Slowik). Well this one came out of nowhere! In his first year running the show, Slowik came out firing. There wasn’t a lot of enthusiasm about the Texans offense heading into the season with rookie CJ Stroud throwing to some pass catchers that would most charitably be described as “unproven.” But they’re proven now, ain’t they? Nico Collins and Tank Dell took turns having big weeks, and CJ Stroud turned in a rookie of the year performance. The team was 7th in passing yards and 12 in passing scores, and there’s no reason to believe they will be any worse in 2024 with the continued growth of Stroud and the addition of WR Stefon Diggs. The team also ranked 22nd in rushing yards and 23rd in rushing scores, but that was with Devin Singletary as the primary ball carrier, so it stands to reason that the rushing production will increase with the addition of veteran Joe Mixon. Mixon is a nice target in the middle rounds.

Indianapolis Colts (Jim Bob Cooter). Cooter was the OC for the Lions from 2015-2018, generally orchestrating some really good aerial attacks despite a porous offensive line. He was hired to be the OC for the Colts last year, but we didn’t truly get a chance to see the offense he wanted to run since Anthony Richardson got hurt so early in the year. Still, despite being forced to start backup Gardner Minshew for the final 3/4 of the season, the Colts were still a pretty strong offense: top 10 in the league in total scores, rushing yards, and rushing scores. It’s an offense that had a heavy rush emphasis, and that will probably be even more pronounced this year with a healthy Richardson. I’m probably fading the pass-catchers here but targeting Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. Also, right now the backups to Taylor are Trey Sermon and Evan Hull, and those dudes are going undrafted in most leagues. They are super cheap insurance policies for Taylor.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Press Taylor). There’s a perception that the Jaguars offense isn’t very good. But that narrative is simply false. In each of the past 2 seasons, they’ve been a top-half team in the league in total yards and total scores; top 12 in rushing scores; and top 10 in passing yards. Really the only area you’d like to see improvement is the passing touchdowns (14th in 2022 and 21st in 2023), but a lot of that was attributable to Calvin Ridley dropping so many passes last year, especially in the end zone. This is a fairly underrated offense to target this season. Trevor Lawrence is getting drafted as a backup QB in most leagues, and Christian Kirk isn’t going nearly as high as he was last year. Kirk is essentially the modern-day Julian Edelman, and gives you consistent, reliable production. Travis Etienne remains a good pick at cost, Evan Engram led the league in catches for tight ends last year yet still gets drafted outside the top 5 at his position, and Brian Thomas Jr. is likely to return value that well exceeds his draft day price tag. Buy.

Tennessee Titans (Nick Holtz). No track record on this guy, but new HC Brian Callahan was the Bengals offensive coordinator for 5 years, so we can probably look to the Bengals for the type of offense Callahan would like to run. As noted above in the Bengals section, those offenses were generally poor in the rushing department, so I’m avoiding both Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard, even though both have perfectly reasonable price tags (I’m also still scared of that offensive line, despite the draft additions of Peter Skoronski and J.C. Latham). The team is probably going to throw quite a bit, so Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins are both decent values at their current costs. I’m avoiding slot WR Tyler Boyd - even though he knows Callahan’s offense, last year showed me that his tank is just completely out of gas. Will Levis might have some big games, but he’s a backup for me, and will likely be undrafted in most single-QB leagues.

Denver Broncos (Joe Lombardi). Lombardi had a rough go of it with the 2023 Denver Broncos, but he had more success in his 2-year stints with the Lions (2014-2015) and Chargers (2021-2022). Last year, though, his offense was 18th in rushing yards and 24th in passing yards, and it was 28th in rushing scores and 8th in passing scores. It’s hard to see the passing scores number increasing with the team transitioning from Russell Wilson to rookie Bo Nix, but it probably stands to reason that the rushing production will improve. I’m personally a believer in 5th round rookie Audric Estime, Notre Dame’s all time leader in rushing scores, and believe that if Javonte Williams doesn’t improve, that job is going to belong to Estime. Also, Sean Payton’s offenses are known for RB production, so I’m comfortable investing in any of Javonte, Estime, or Jaleel McLaughlin. Also, as chronicled elsewhere in this draft kit, Courtland Sutton appears to be a screaming value. Rookie WR Troy Franklin also had an outstanding analytical profile, but fell to the 4th round of the draft for reasons unknown. I had him rated as a late first round talent, which shows what I know. The pass catchers are all cheap in this offense, and rightfully so, based on Lombardi’s track record.

Kansas City Chiefs (Matt Nagy). There are really two Matt Nagys: the one who was the Chiefs offensive coordinator in 2017 and 2023, and the one who was the head coach for the Bears from 2018-2021. If you ignore the dumpster fire that was his Bears offense, he actually looks pretty good: offensives in the top 10 in yards, passing yards, and passing scores. This makes Patrick Mahomes a good target (duh, thanks for the great analysis!) but also suggests you should be taking shots on the soon-to-be-suspended Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown (and I guess Travis Kelce if you can get over the age thing). On the flip side, his rushing offenses leave much to be desired. He has only had one top-half rushing offenses in any of the past 4 seasons, and it wasn’t last year with the Chiefs. Further, his rank in rushing scores over the past 4 years have been 28th, 27th, 18th, and 26th. Don’t expect a lot of rushing scores from this team. I am decidedly OUT on Isiah Pacheco at cost.

Las Vegas Raiders (Luke Getsy). Getsy was the OC for the Bears the past 2 years. The team was a top-2 rushing offenses, thanks primarily to QB Justin Fields, but bottom-5 in passing yards both seasons. It’s hard to decipher what this portends for the Raiders in 2024, as Gardner Minshew isn’t anywhere near the rushing threat that Fields is, but should be a somewhat better passer. On balance, I’m probably avoiding this offense, with the exception of Jakobi Meyers, who is a great value at cost; he always finishes as a WR3 or better. Davante Adams is truly awesome, but I’m scared off by his age, and I’m probably not drafting him unless he’s falling well beyond his ADP.

Los Angeles Chargers Greg Roman). It’s so easy to love Greg Roman. You know exactly what you’re getting with this guy: an offense that is heavy on the run. Roman has a decade under his belt as an offensive coordinator: 2011-2014 with San Francisco (and Jim Harbaugh), 2015-2016 with Buffalo, and 2019-2022 with Baltimore (and John Harbaugh). He’s reunited with Jim Harbaugh in LA, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them make the same magic happen. In his past NINE seasons as an offensive coordinator, Roman has never had a team rank worse than 4th in rushing yards. That’s simply astounding, and tremendously difficult to be that consistent. In fact, from 2015-2020, every offense he coordinated finished as the #1 rushing offenses in the league. To me, this says you need to be throwing as many darts as you can at Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, and J.K. Dobbins. One of those dudes is going to end up being a star this year. In addition, I’m also much higher than consensus on Justin Herbert. No, he doesn’t have the pass catchers that he used to, but Roman’s history tells me that Herbie is going to make up a lot of those fantasy points with his legs. Yes, the passing yards will go down; in 8/10 seasons Roman has had a bottom-5 passing offense in terms of yards. But, like I said, the rushing yards are always there, and he’s had some success with passing scores, even though he hasn’t had much success with passing yards. In fact, his 2019 Ravens threw more touchdown passes than any other team in the NFL, and Lamar Jackson won an MVP. This suggests that the fantasy community is sleeping on Justin Herbert.

Dallas Cowboys (Brian Schottenheimer). In the past few years, the light switch has finally gone on for Marty’s kid. After about a decade of ineptitude orchestrating the offense for the Rams and Jets, Schottenheimer finally started to turn things around with the Seahawks from 2018-2020. He continued that progression with Dallas last year, which he led to the #1 scoring offense in the NFL. That was Schottenheimer’s first offense to finish in the top 5, although his prior 3 Seattle offenses all finished in the top 10 in scoring. We should expect more of the same this year. The key personnel is all returning: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson. The only real loss is Tony Pollard, but he had a disappointing season to say the least, and he is being replaced by familiar face Ezekiel Elliott. This is the same crew that, last season, finished 3rd in the NFL in passing yards and first in the NFL in passing scores. In fact, each of Schottenheimer’s last 4 offenses have finished in the top 5 in the league in passing scores. This team should continue to light up the scoreboard through the air, as long as the offensive line holds up. As far as the running game, expect mediocrity at best. Zeke is on his last legs, and Schottenheimer hasn’t had a rushing offense finish in the top 10 in yards in over a decade.

New York Giants (Mike Kafka). We’ve got 2 years of data on Kafka’s offenses, and the results have been disappointing. He’s been particularly bad in the passing game, although perhaps he gets a pass last year due to having to start Tommy DeVito. His passing offenses have never ranked better than 26th, and never better than 24th in passing scores. Hopefully Malik Nabers can help change some of that, but still, one guy can only do so much. He’s shown a propensity to commit to the run game, though, and has always boasted rushing offenses in the top half of the league. Granted, that was with Saquon Barkley, but there’s still a non-zero chance that Devin Singletary is a sneaky late-round pick to give you respectable rushing production as your RB2 or RB3.

Philadelphia Eagles (Kellen Moore). The bloom is off the rose a bit with Moore, but he still has a reasonable track record. In 2019, his first year as a coordinator, he led the Cowboys to a #1 overall finish In yards, and repeated the feat 2 years later. In 3 of his 5 seasons, his teams have finished in the top 6 in scoring. His offenses have also been balanced, generally finishing in the top half of the league in rushing yards, rushing scores, passing yards, an passing scores. Now, the rub: his Chargers squad last season ranked in the bottom half of the league in nearly every yardage and scoring category, with the exception of passing yards (13th) and passing TDs (16th). But that makes sense, given all the injuries the Chargers dealt with. Austin Ekeler was hurt for much of the season and they didn’t really have a contingency plan. Mike Williams was lost for the season early on, Josh Palmer and Keenan Allen were both in and out of the lineup with injuries, and rookie Quentin Johnston did not live up to his draft billing. All in all, there was just a lot that went wrong. So this year, you have to ask yourself: are we getting the Cowboys version of Moore, or the Chargers version? I choose to believe it’s the Cowboys version. He’s surrounded with elite offensive talent in Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and free agent signee Saquon Barkley, and they’re protected by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. I’d be genuinely surprised if he doesn’t have another top-5 offense, like in his Dallas days. I’m bullish on all of the Eagles this year.

Washington Commanders (Kliff Kingsbury). Kliff Kingsbury was the head man in Arizona from 2019-2022 and called the plays, so we have a pretty decent idea of how he is likely to run the Commanders offense. And although he’s known for an “Air Raid” style offense, it’s actually the running game that is his calling card. From 2019-2021, his teams were all top 10 in rushing yards and top 7 in rushing TDs (which included a healthy dose of rushing TDs from his QB). Passing, though, his teams left much to be desired, only once ranking in the top half of the league in passing yardage, and averaging near the middle of the league in passing scores (including two finishes 24th or worse). This tells me that Jayden Daniels is probably a decent pick due to rushing upside, but the passing upside is probably limited, which has me steering clear of the receivers like Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Zach Ertz. It also suggests that Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson could be decent value selections at their late-round cost.

Chicago Bears (Shane Waldron). Waldron is a hard one to peg. He was the offensive coordinator for the Seahawks from 2021-2023, and the results are all over the map. There really aren’t consistent patterns. His offenses have ranked 10th, 4th, and 20th in passing scores. Passing yardage is usually fairly consistent, as it’s always in the middle third of the league. His teams’ rushing yardage ranks have consistently declined year over year, going from 11th in 2021 to 18th in 2022 to 28th in 2023. In terms of overall scoring, he’s never finished outside the top 20. All told, he seems to run an offense that is league-average, that has become more pass-heavy each year. This likely paints Caleb Williams as a high-end QB2, and suggests that while the pass catchers will be useful, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are unlikely to replicate their lofty fantasy totals from last season.

Detroit Lions (Ben Johnson). Ben Johnson is one of the hottest names in coaching right now, and for good reason. In 2 seasons calling the plays for the Lions, every one of his offenses has finished Top 5 in yardage and Top 5 in scoring. Last season, he called an incredibly balanced offense, finishing first in the league in rushing scores and fourth in the league in passing scores. His yardage totals were equally impressive, ranking fifth in rushing yards and second in passing yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta are rightfully going high in drafts, but the guys I’d focus on are David Montgomery and Jared Goff, both of whom are a lot cheaper and should be reliable sources of fantasy points this year. I’m decidedly out on Jameson Williams, but that’s just because the track record is bad for wideouts who didn’t do much their first two years in the league.

Green Bay Packers (Adam Stenavich). The Packers’ totals under Stenavich have been generally middle-of-the-pack (no pun intended) except in one category: passing scores. In 2022, they were 11th in the league; last season, they were third. That improvement coincides with going from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love at quarterback. Love is probably a tad over drafted, but almost all of the Packers pass-catchers are underrated, including Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and - my favorite of the group - Christian Watson. Luke Musgrave is also a good late value. Target this team’s pass-catchers; their value exceeds their price tag.

Minnesota Vikings (Wes Phillips). Phillips has a decent track record in his two seasons as offensive coordinator of the Vikings. His teams have been top 10 in yardage each season, which is pretty impressive when you consider they lost QB Kirk Cousins for a huge portion of last season and had a rotating door at quarterback thereafter. The team nevertheless finished 5th in passing yards and 4th in passing touchdowns. Even with a rookie QB in JJ McCarthy, this is a promising passing offense. I have no concerns about Justin Jefferson as a first round pick, and believe that Jordan Addison is definitely a good value at cost. I’m less bullish than most on free agent signee Aaron Jones. Under Phillips, the Vikings have never finished better than 27th in rushing yards, and Jones has always been a timeshare back. The 2022 Vikings did post a top-10 total in rushing scores, but I question whether that’s a realistic expectation for this offense, or if they’re more likely to be closer to the 30th-ranked finish in rushing scores that they posted last season.

Atlanta Falcons (Zac Robinson). We don’t have any data on Robinson, but (a) he’s from the Sean McVay coaching tree and (b) he’s not Arthur Smith. That tells me we’re going to have a bellcow back - hello, Bijan Robinson! - and that there should be a creative passing offenses, which bodes well for Kirk Cousins, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Drake London seemed to get a bump in ADP over last year, but Kyle Pitts hasn’t really moved, and I don’t understand that. I view him as an elite tight end option this year, and he’s probably going later than most of the other elite tight end options. He’s a great target if you want to have a top flight tight end but want to wait until the end of the run to get your guy.

Carolina Panthers (Brad Idzik). There is no information on Idzik, but the head coach is Dave Canales, who orchestrated the Buccaneers offense last year. Despite having a limited quarterback in Baker Mayfield, Canales called an offense that finished top 10 in passing scores. The team ranked only 32nd in rushing yards, but he generally committed to one runner in Rachaad White, who finished with over 330 touches. This history suggests to me that Bryce Young is a value at ADP (everyone was writing off Baker Mayfield at this time last year), that Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette could surprise, and that once the training wheels are taken off, Jonathan Brooks could be a bell cow. Brooks, in particular, has me excited, and I’m scooping him up everywhere I can.

New Orleans Saints (Klint Kubiak). Even though it’s his first year in New Orleans, this feels like a lame-duck situation for Kubiak, who was brought in to replace longtime OC Pete Carmichael. It feels like Dennis Allen is decidedly on the hot seat, and it’s hard to see this team making a deep playoff run with Derek Carr at quarterback. That said, Kubiak has one season of prior coordinator experience, having run the show for the 2021 Vikings. His team was 11th in passing yards and 9th in passing scores, and was generally middle-of-the-pack in most other categories. If there were any nits to pick, it’s that his Vikings were bottom-5 in rushing scores, so I’m not too optimistic about Kendre Miller and Alvin Kamara. Chris Olave is a decent pick at cost, and somebody else from this pass catching corps should step forward. Figuring out whether that is Rashid Shaheed, A.T. Perry, or someone else entirely is the challenge.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Liam Cohen). Cohen was the coordinator for the 2022 LA Rams, and the results were the worst of the Sean McVay era. The team finished dead last in the league in yards and 27th in scores. The only slight positive was a 16th-ranked finish in rushing scores, suggesting that Rachaad White should continue to be a rock-solid low end RB1. I would anticipate some drop-off from Baker Mayfield and friends in the passing game, although it would not be a surprise to see Chris Godwin maintain value while manning the Cooper Kupp slot role in the offense.

Arizona Cardinals (Drew Petzing). In his first season calling the plays last year, for an offense that was without Kyler Murray for much of the year and otherwise devoid of much talent, Petzing acquitted himself well. THe Cardinals finished 4th in rushing yards and 9th in rushing scores. With Kyler Murray fully healthy and the team adding Trey Benson in the draft, it would be surprising if those numbers did not at least hold steady, if not improve. The team was in the bottom third of the league in the passing categories, but it would be shocking if 4th overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. did not help them improve there, as well.

Los Angeles Rams (Mike LaFleur). LaFleur was decidedly subpar with the Jets in 2021 and 2022, but much more respectable with the Rams last year. The 2023 Rams were top 10 in rushing scores, passing yards, overall scores, and overall yards. This is a balanced offense, and Kyren Williams, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp are all good values at their ADPs. I’m also snagging Blake Corum where I can, just in case the Rams decide to lighten Kyren Williams’ workload.

San Francisco 49ers (Kyle Shanahan). Perhaps the best offensive mind in the game today. He’s been calling plays for offenses since 2008, with stops with Houston, Washington, Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco. He has a whopping SEVEN finishes among the top 5 in rushing scores… but you don’t need me to tell you to draft Christian McCaffrey. His passing offenses area also great. Most of his offenses rank in the top 12 in passing yards; in fact, in the past 15 years, he’s only had TWO offenses rank outside the top half of the league in yards, and neither was worse than 20th. Guys like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Ricky Pearsall are all solid bets for good yardage totals, as is, obviously, Brock Purdy. Shanahan also has 4 top-5 finishes in passing scores, but 2 of those 4 have come in the past 2 seasons - i.e., with Brock Purdy at the helm.

Seattle Seahawks (Ryan Grubb). Grubb has never called plays at the NFL level. But he did coordinate the offense for the Washington Huskies that went to the college football national title game last year, so we can glean some information from how he ran that offense. Overall, those Huskies had 411 rush attempts for 1982 yards and 28 touchdowns. Their passing offenses was even better, with 574 pass attempts, 5155 (!) yards, and 38 touchdowns, for an average of 343.67 yards per game. These Seahawks are gonna throw, kids. And most of their pass catchers are cheap. I’m all over DK Metcalf (who has never finished worse than a WR2), Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, and even Noah Fant. Geno Smith doesn’t really excite me, but keep your eyes on Sam Howell on the waiver wire. If this guy is able to wrest the starting job from Smith, look out.