Mid-Summer Update
Ah, late July. Independence Day is in the rearview mirror, school is right around the corner for kids, and most casual fantasy players are starting to turn their attention back to the game that we all love. Here are some quick hitting updates and hot taeks on the most recent fantasy-relevant storylines:
Aaron Rodgers: Will he or won’t he? The Packers QB and reigning MVP has hinted several times this offseason that he is dissatisfied with the organization, and in particular, GM Brian Gutekunst. Rodgers may have a legitimate gripe - Gutekunst continues to refuse to put playmakers around Rodgers, and instead drafts guys who aren’t NFL-level talents like Jordan Love - but ultimately, he just needs to make a decision. If you want to retire, retire. If you want to play, shut up and play. Training camp should tell us more. Players are fined for ever day of camp they miss, and under the current collective bargaining agreement, those fines cannot be waived. If Rodgers doesn’t show, he stands to lose nearly $2M. If he holds out into the season, he’ll have to repay his signing bonus. The team has all the leverage here unless Rodgers decides to retire. From a fantasy perspective, you’ll want to downgrade Davante Adams and Aaron Jones if Jordan Love is under center instead of Rodgers. Life certainly won’t be easier for them with an inferior quarterback.
Cam Akers: We hardly knew ye. Last week, Akers tore his Achilles’ tendon while training for the upcoming season. This is a devastating blow, not just for 2021 but for Akers’ entire future in the league. While certain players have come back from Achilles tears and played at a high level - former WR Michael Crabtree and former CB Leon Hall immediately come to mind - there is a dearth of running backs who have come back from the injury and played at a high level. Former Texans RB D’Onta Foreman came back from the injury to play for the Titans in 2020. He finished the season with 95 rushing yards, and is currently a free agent with no known suitors at only 25 years old. We should closely monitor the return of Colts RB Marlon Mack this upcoming season, as he is likewise returning from an Achilles’ tendon tear. If he’s able to be fantasy relevant following this injury, he’ll be the first RB to do so. Poor Cam Akers has a tough row to hoe to ever get back to fantasy relevance, which is a real shame. The former five-star recruit had so much promise as a workhorse back.
The next man up for the Rams is Darrell Henderson. Henderson has a three-down skill set, but even dating back to college has never proven he can be a workhorse back. He’ll likely get the majority of the work for the Rams, but guys like Raymond Calais, Xavier Jones, and even 7th round rookie Jake Funk should play a role this year. But this smells like a situation where the Rams will wait until after camp cuts to sign a guy like Sony Michel, or bring in an aging vet who can handle a heavy workload like Adrian Peterson or Frank Gore.Michael Thomas: Injury woes continue. It was announced earlier this week that Thomas will miss the start of the season after undergoing surgery in June to repair the ankle injury that bothered him throughout 2020. Recovery for this type of surgery is 4 months, so Thomas should be sidelined at least through September. My general approach when drafting fantasy rosters is that I do not draft players who I know are hurt unless I’m spending a double digit draft pick. It’s safe to assume that Thomas will not be on any of my fantasy rosters.
For the Saints, it’s a wide open pecking order at wide receiver with Thomas sidelined. In the wideout room, Tre’Quan Smith is probably the biggest beneficiary, but after that the cupboard is pretty bare. The depth chart consists of guys like Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Woof. If you’re Sean Payton, you’re probably going to funnel targets to the most reliable pass-catcher you’ve got left: Alvin Kamara. I expect Kamara to be a PPR monster for the first month or two of the season, and he’d be my number 2 overall selection in PPR leagues, behind only Christian McCaffrey. Yes, I’d take him above Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry.
The other guy who gets a major boost here is Latavius Murray. That Sean Payton guy is a pretty bright coach, and he knows he doesn’t have many offensive weapons to catch the ball right now. As he transitions to a new QB in the wake of Drew Brees’ retirement, he’s going to need to go more run-heavy. Latavius Murray is a great value at his current 11th-round ADP. (He’s going behind the aforementioned Marlon Mack. Seriously?)Deshaun Watson: The legal woes are overblown. This is one situation where my law background helps me to provide insight that other analysts can’t provide. For those that have not been following the news, there have been several civil lawsuits filed against Watson by massage therapists for alleged sexual improprieties. Many - including, it seems, the Texans - are concerned that Watson will be unavailable for the 2021 season, and perhaps beyond. I do not share these concerns, for several reasons.
First, the suits are civil in nature, not criminal. Given the publicity of the matter and the number of accusers (double digits), law enforcement has undoubtedly investigated the matter. Watson has not been indicted. So there is no concern for jail time as a result of these accusations.
Second, the Complaints (the legal documents that initiate the lawsuit and set forth the allegations) do not allege rape. In general, the accusers allege that as they gave Watson massages, he encouraged them to touch or caress his genitals in a way that made them uncomfortable. But they voluntarily did so, and then regretted it. Now, this may make Watson a scumbag. It may make him an entitled athlete who has no respect for women and treats them as objects. But it doesn’t make him a criminal. And more to the point, it’s probably not even actionable civilly. He did not force these women to do anything to him; he just encouraged it. There was no force involved. There was an uncomfortable situation created, no doubt. And if the accusations are true, he’s certainly not a person whose jersey I would be buying, or who I’d encourage my kids to emulate. But he’s not likely to be found liable for any type of tort, because based on what has been pled, it does not appear that the accusers (at least in the complaint I read) could meet their burden at trial of satisfying the elements of the claim.
Third, and on that same point, there isn’t likely to be a trial. Watson will likely settle these claims out of court, and include confidentiality provisions as part of the payment. Thus, the only real danger of Watson missing games would come as a result of the NFL imposing discipline as part of the personal conduct policy. This would be uncharted waters, Not only has Watson not been charged with a crime; his conduct, even if true, would not constitute a crime. It is difficult to predict how the NFL would handle a situation such as this, but it seems that it might be handled in the same manner as domestic violence, since, for comparison’s sake, both activities involve allegations of forms of abuse against women. A six-game suspension is probably the ceiling for what he’s looking at, but it’s likely to be less. In light of that, Watson is an excellent dart throw with the last pick in your fantasy draft, especially if you’re a late round quarterback drafter and already selected someone like Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, or Ryan Tannehill.