2024 Potential Cap Cuts - NFC
Every year, we see “surprise” roster cuts across the NFL. But are these cuts really a surprise? Every team has an obligation to stay under the salary cap, so it really shouldn’t shock us when overpaid veterans are released to free up cap space. I take a look at the salary data on OvertheCap.com each year to make an educated guess at which highly priced veterans could be on the chopping block.
To be clear, this is not a “predictions” article. I’m not looking into my crystal ball and telling you these dudes will be cut. I’m saying that based on their salaries and production, and their teams’ respective cap situations, it wouldn’t be surprising if some of them were to be looking for a new team this off-season. This article will focus on the NFC, and our companion piece focuses on the AFC.
Before diving into it, there are a few basic concepts we should explain:
Cap Space: For 2023, the salary cap is projected to be roughly $255 million. Based on current contracts, each team is either over or under the projected cap. We will provide data, courtesy of OvertheCap.com (the source for all of our analysis in this article series), on how far each team is over or under the salary cap. Teams that are below the cap have money to spend on free agents and contract extensions; teams that are above the cap need to make cuts to get below it.
Cap Hit: This is the amount of money that the player counts towards the salary cap. It does not necessarily equate to the actual salary that a player would make in the given year. Rather, it is a combination of salary and bonuses. For many players, they get up-front signing bonuses that are spread out over the life of a contract. So for the majority of players, especially veteran players, their cap hit can be significantly larger than the actual salary they stand to earn for that season. The cap hits, when added together, give us the total figure for how much a team exceeds or falls below the salary cap.
Cap savings: This is the amount of money that a team would save against the cap if a player is cut. Frequently, the cap savings are a lesser amount than the cap hit. This is because of “dead money” (see below). Cap savings are typically expressed in terms of post-June 1 cuts, as cuts after that date end up saving teams the most money, as they can spread out the dead money over multiple years.
Dead money: This is the amount of money that a player will count against the salary cap even if he is cut. Most often this is due to signing bonuses that were prorated, for cap purposes, over the life of a player’s contract. So, for example, if Terrell Owens signs a 4-year contract with a $20M signing bonus, his team can spread out the cap hit of the bonus over the life of that deal - let’s say $5M a year - and if he’s cut in year 4, the team can have cap savings in the amount of the released player’s salary, but still have a dead money hit in the amount of $5M (the remainder of the signing bonus that was already paid, but not allocated to the cap in a prior year). That $5M dead money will count against the cap, regardless of whether the player was cut. A team can also have a dead money hit from trading a player. Furthermore, teams are not required to evenly spread the cap hit for bonuses over the life of a deal. Some teams like to front-load contracts so that the dead money hits occur early in the contract. Other teams prefer to push their dead money hits toward the back of the deal, always kicking the can down the road.
Guaranteed Money: This is the amount of money that a player is guaranteed to make, regardless of whether he is cut. Most NFL veterans’ contracts guarantee money for only the first two years, which is why you see so few guys getting cut in the first or second year of a contract. Owners don’t like to pay players who aren’t playing for them. But in the third year, when there’s no guaranteed money, it’s a whole lot easier to cut them, as there is not additional cash coming out of the owner’s pocket. There is no guaranteed money owed to the players discussed in this article, unless otherwise noted.
Below, we will go through each team in the NFC, division by division. We start by setting forth each team’s salary cap situation. We then list some key players who have large cap hits, their age as of September 1, how much dead money the team carries regardless of whether the player remains on the team, and how much money the team can save against the cap if the player is designated a post-June 1 cut. Also, we have included the player’s grade from Pro Football Focus, so that you can make an assessment of whether you feel the player is likely to be cut given his recent level of performance.
POTENTIAL NFC CAP CUTS
Dallas Cowboys - $10M over the cap
Michael Gallup, Wide Receiver (28 years old)
Dead Money: $4.4M
Cap Savings: $9.5M
PFF Grade: 61.5
Brandin Cooks, Wide Receiver (30 years old)
Dead Money: $2M
Cap Savings: $8M
PFF Grade: 69.6
Of the two, Gallup seems to be the more likely cut, even though he’s younger. He’s never been the same since his ACL injury.
New York Giants - $30M under the cap
Darren Waller, Tight End (31 years old)
Dead Money: $2.5M
Cap Savings: $11.6M
PFF Grade: 69.4
Although Waller’s first year in the Big Apple didn’t go as planned, it’s likely the G-Men bring him back for another season. They have plenty of cap room and they really don’t have any other reliable threats in the passing game (with all due respect to Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson).
Philadelphia Eagles - $27M under the cap
Avonte Maddox, Cornerback (28 years old)
Dead Money: $2.6M
Cap Savings: $7.1M
PFF Grade: 50.6
The Eagles had one of the worst secondaries in the league last year. Maddox’s PFF grade helps explain why.
Washington Commanders - $78M under the cap
Logan Thomas, Tight End (33 years old)
Dead Money: $1.75M
Cap Savings: $6.5M
PFF Grade: 57.1
Washington doesn’t need to make any cuts because it is already flush with cap space. But this one still makes sense. Thomas has never been a particularly impressive player at tight end, and his best days are clearly behind him. Although the depth chart is pretty barren, it’s not hard to fathom the Commanders moving on, especially considering they have a new coaching staff. It would not be at all surprising to see new head coach Dan Quinn reunite with Dalton Schultz in free agency, since he was on the Dallas staff during Schultz’s time as a Cowboy.
Chicago Bears - $78M under the cap
Chicago has ample space and no obvious cut candidates. Their biggest cap hits are Montez Sweat, D.J. Moore, and Tremaine Edmunds, none of whom are going anywhere.
Detroit Lions - $58M under the cap
Frank Ragnow, Center (28 years old)
Dead Money: $7.3M
Cap Savings: $5.5M
PFF Grade: 88.1
Ragnow still has $2.5M in guarantees, and he is still a beast on the field. But for several seasons he has played through a chronic, inoperable toe injury. He may hang up his cleats this off-season.
Green Bay Packers - $7M under the cap
David Bakhtiari, Left Tackle (32 years old)
Dead Money: $19M
Cap Savings: $20M
PFF Grade: 78.3
Bakhtiari has played less than a full season’s worth of games since tearing his ACL in December 2020. The team can no longer rely on him. He’s got a huge dead money hit, but sometimes it’s just time to move on.
De’Vondre Campbell, Linebacker (31 years old)
Dead Money: $3.7M
Cap Savings: $10.5M
PFF Grade: 65.3
The bloom is off the rose. Campbell’s play really slipped last season.
Minnesota Vikings - $36M under the cap
Harrison Smith, Safety (35 years old)
Dead Money:
Cap Savings:
PFF Grade: 67.9
This one pains me. I went to Notre Dame with Harrison Smith, and he’s easily the best player that came out of the Irish program while I was there. He’s been a standout safety for over a decade. But he’s nearing the end of the line. His play slipped last year. It’s hard to justify bringing back a safety who is 35 years old at a cap hit of nearly $20M. If he comes back, it’s likely on a reworked deal.
Atlanta Falcons - $33M under the cap
Grady Jarrett, Defensive Tackle (31 years old)
Dead Money: $4.1M
Cap Savings: $16.3M
PFF Grade: 70.1
Just not the same dude he once was. They can keep him around if they want the veteran leadership, but it would be a surprise if he graded above 70 next year in his age-31 season.
Carolina Panthers - $35M under the cap
Donte Jackson, Cornerback (28 years old)
Dead Money: $5.2M
Cap Savings: $10.5M
PFF Grade: 64.3
One of the highest paid players on the team, but sure doesn’t play like it. This money would be better spent on a wide receiver. You have to wonder if they’re going to try to pry Mike Evans from the division-rival Buccaneers.
New Orleans Saints - $33M over the cap
Marcus Maye, Safety (30 years old)
Dead Money: $2.4M
Cap Savings:$7.2M
PFF Grade: 57.6
Maye was an older prospect when he entered the NFL, and his prime didn’t last long. He’s posting the sort of grades that are common for backups.
Andrus Peat, Guard (30 years old)
Dead Money: $7.3M
Cap Savings: $6.3M
PFF Grade: 60.2
He plays ok, I guess, given the state of offensive line play in the NFL, but it’s not a shocking cut if they need the cap room.
Ryan Ramczyk, Right Tackle (30 years old)
Dead Money: $10M
Cap Savings: $17M
PFF Grade: 73.5
This one might surprise some people, as he’s still playing well. But Ramczyk has a cartilage issue in his knee and there is speculation he may retire.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $44M under the cap
Carlton Davis III, Cornerback (27 years old)
Dead Money: $6M
Cap Savings: $14.4M
PFF Grade: 58.2
This might be the most overpaid dude in the NFC. Straight up larceny to get the kind of money he’s getting while grading below 60, per PFF.
Russell Gage, Wide Receiver (28 years old)
Dead Money: $3.4M
Cap Savings: $10M
PFF Grade: n/a
He’s a WR4 type who gets paid like a low end WR2. That sort of contract doesn’t make sense. For what it’s worth, cutting Gage and Davis likely gives them money to re-sign Baker Mayfield without affecting the rest of their currently-available cap space.
Arizona Cardinals - $51M under the cap
D.J. Humphries, Offensive Tackle (30 years old)
Dead Money: $6.9M
Cap Savings: $15.9M
PFF Grade: $62.5
Even with a middling PFF grade, it likely isn’t happening. This team needs help most everywhere.
Budda Baker, Safety (28 years old)
Dead Money: $3.9M
Cap Savings: $15.1M
PFF Grade: 64.8
Again, the Cardinals need help everywhere. It doesn’t really help them to get rid of their veteran leader in the secondary.
Los Angeles Rams - $40M under the cap
Joe Noteboom, Left Tackle (29 years old)
Dead Money: $5M
Cap Savings:$15M
PFF Grade: 52.9
Noteboom was tabbed as Andrew Whitworth’s replacement. It’s always hard to be the guy that follows a surefire Hall of Famer. Noteboom hasn’t even provided league-average play, and it’s time to move on.
San Francisco 49ers - $5M over the cap
The Niners have no obvious cut candidates. George Kittle, Fred Warner, Deebo Samuel, Arik Armstead, and Trent Williams all have cap hits north of $20M, but all of those guys are deserving. Could one of them be an unexpected cut to make room for an extension for alpha wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who finally blossomed last season?
Seattle Seahawks - $13M under the cap
Jamal Adams, Safety (28 years old)
Dead Money: $9.8M
Cap Savings:$17.1M
PFF Grade: 54.9
His career was simply derailed following the trade to Seattle. No way they can justify keeping him given his recent level of production.
Quandre Diggs, Safety (31 years old)
Dead Money: $10.3M
Cap Savings: $11.0M
PFF Grade: 55.1
Poor safety play all around for the ‘Hawks. They just need to reboot the position.
Have I overlooked anyone? Leave your thoughts in the comments!