Weekly Hail Mary: Week 14 Recap
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 3 of 4 recommended plays last week, for a 75% success rate:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Ryan Tannehill - HIT - Tanny gave us exactly what we needed: 250+ yards passing and a couple scores. Yeah, he had a pick, but it was essentially negated by his rushing yards. He finished with 19.76 fantasy points - a top 10 QB on the week.
Tyler Huntley - MISS - His injury in this one was no excuse. Huntley was awful against a very beatable defense. Only 6.62 fantasy points. Barf.
Running Back (8.15)
DeeJay Dallas - PUSH - Dallas missed the game with injury.
Wide Receiver (9.9)
Demarcus Robinson - HIT - In a low-scoring game, Robinson managed to corral 5 catches for 52 yards. That resulted in 10.2 fantasy points, which is just good enough to qualify as a hit!
Tight End (9.35)
Hunter Henry - HIT - All starting tight ends post a decent stat line against the Cardinals, and Henry was no exception. He had 3 catches for 70 yards, resulting in 10.0 fantasy points.
Given that the fantasy playoffs start in most leagues in Week 15, our Week 14 column contained our final recommended streamers of the season. Thank you for following us this year, and good luck in the playoffs! Make sure to check back with us around draft time for our analysis of the 2023 NFL draft picks.