Weekly Hail Mary: Week 11
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 2 of 3 recommended plays last week, for a 67% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Taylor Heinicke - MISS - 9.6 points - Heinicke was playing fine, but was knocked from this game with an injury. What can ya do? You can’t predict injuries. It’s a violent game.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Keaton Mitchell - HIT - 13.1 points - 32 yards rushing and a score, plus a reception for 34 yards. He had only 4 touches, but he made them count.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Zay Jones - PUSH - Jones continues to miss time with an injury.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Michael Mayer - HIT - 9.4 points - 3 points for 19 yards, but he found pay dirt. At tight end, all it takes is a touchdown to make someone a viable streamer for the week.
Moving onto Week 11, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Matthew Stafford, Rams (40% rostered). We’ve reached the point in the season where everyone with a pulse is rostered. Given byes, numerous starting QB injuries, and crummy matchups, this is just a horrible week to stream quarterbacks - probably the worst I’ve ever seen in all the years I’ve been writing this column. I can’t in good conscience recommend anyone who actually qualifies for our list (below 35% owned), so I’m going with Stafford, as he was dropped in a lot of leagues due to his thumb injury and is available in 60% of Yahoo! leagues. He comes back this week against Seattle and should have all his receiving weapons at his disposal. The Seahawks are a middle-of-the-road matchup defensively, but that’s about as good as you’re going to get on waivers this week.
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
Darrell Henderson, Rams (33%). Sounds like we’re investing in the L.A. Rams offense this week. Henderson isn’t great, but he’s exceeded our thresholds in 2 of 3 games with the Rams, so there’s certainly optimism he can continue to produce.
Ty Chandler, VIkings (10%). Alex Mattison went down with a concussion and Chandler gets to square off against the crummy Broncos defense, which is worst in the league against opposing runners. He’s got ample opportunity and should get to carry the load. NOTE: Remove him from streamer consideration if Mattison is cleared to play.
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Curtis Samuel, Commanders (32%). He’s about as inconsistent as they come, but when he hits, he usually hits pretty big. He had only 2 catches for less than 10 yards in his return from injury last week. I’m expected bigger things this week against a floundering Giants defense.
Noah Brown, Texans (26%). Look, I’m not a believer either, but after back to back games with over 150 yards receiving, we can’t continue to ignore him.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals (12%). With Kyler Murray back, I’m cautiously optimistic. Plus, rookie WRs tend to improve in the second half of their inaugural seasons.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Luke Musgrave, Packers (24%). Every time we recommend Luke Musgrave, he fails us. But he’s coming off back to back games above our thresholds, and now he gets to face off against the Chargers, who are bottom 5 against the tight end. It’s worth a gamble.