Weekly Hail Mary: Week 2
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 4 of 9 recommended plays last week, for a 44% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Sam Howell, Commanders - HIT - Howell had 16.18 points, which is just barely under the points threshold, but he still finished as a Top-12 QB on the week. With his rushing ability, he may find himself on this list multiple times this year.
Bryce Young, Panthers - MISS - Young had a forgettable NFL debut. He threw 1 touchdown, a couple picks, and had only 146 yards passing. His WR corps might just be the worst in the NFL. Hopefully the lack of bona fide weapons won’t stunt his development.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Deon Jackson, Colts - MISS - Jackson got the work. He just didn’t do anything with it. He somehow turned 18 touches (13 carries, 5 receptions) into only 28 scrimmage yards. He fumbled the ball twice, and had only 1.3 fantasy points on the day.
Kyren Williams, Rams - HIT - This might have been our best call of the week. Williams found himself in a bona fide timeshare to start the season, and he was more productive than backfield mate Cam Akers. Williams had 52 yards rushing and a pair of scores, en route to 17.40 fantasy points. He was a top 10 RB on the week, finishing ahead of guys like Bijan Robinson, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Curtis Samuel, Commanders - HIT - Samuel rushed once for 6 yards and also had 5 receptions for 54 yards. The multipurpose weapon went undrafted in most leagues but is just the sort of player who should see enough consistent work to be usable most weeks.
Zay Jones, Jaguars - HIT - I don’t understand why fantasy players still hate Zay Jones. Is it because it took him awhile to get his career going? He’s been useful the past two seasons, and the arrow on the Jaguars’ offense continues to point up. He gets to face #2 corners for as long as Calvin Ridley is playing. On Sunday, he was 5/55 with a score, posting 14.00 fantasy points.
Marvin Mims, Broncos - MISS - Mims just wasn’t involved in his NFL debut, hauling in only 2 passes for 9 yards and a measly 1.9 fantasy points.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Taysom Hill, Saints - MISS - Big whiff. Not surprising. It’s usually all-or-nothing when you start Hill.
Irv Smith, Jr., Bengals - MISS - The entire Bengals offense looked subpar in this one. Joe Burrow, fresh off a new deal making him the highest paid player in the NFL, had his worst game as a pro. He had under 100 yards passing. Irv Smith did him no favors. It’s clear that he’s not a reasonable facsimile for the guy he’s replacing, Hayden Hurst. Hurst was a guy who seemed to always get the tough yards on first down. Smith goes down on first contact. He’s undersized and not terribly athletic. This might be a weak spot for the Bengals all year. Smith finished with just 3 catches for 17 yards, and 3.2 fantasy points. Yucky.
Moving onto Week 2, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Jordan Love, Packers (31%). I hate buying into last week’s stats, but I like Love’s matchup this week against the Falcons. I’m still not a believer in their secondary.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans (7%). Really? I’m recommending Tanny after that 3-INT performance? Why yes, yes I am. The Titans face off against the Chargers, who were just totally destroyed by the Dolphins. Oh, and the game is at home for Tannethrill. I’m expecting a nice bounceback from last week’s complete meltdown.
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
Gus Edwards, Ravens (20%). Is this too obvious? WIth JK Dobbins’ season ending knee injury, Gus is going to play a more prominent role for the Ravens. Some may scramble to the waiver wire for Justice Hill, but I have more faith in the Gus Bus.
Zack Moss, Colts (7%). But only if he’s activated. Deon Jackson was dreadful in Week 1, so you know the Colts are eager to get Moss back in the fold.
Joshua Kelley, Chargers (5%). You get 16 carries, you get our attention. I think this is more a product of how Kellen Moore wants to run his offense than a one-week fluke. Moore wants a between the tackles grinder. Remember what he did with a broken down Zeke Elliott last year?
I’m not buying Kyren Williams just yet. Cam Akers still out-snapped him, and the Rams face the tough Niners defense on Sunday. If you’re looking for a speculative add, it wouldn’t hurt to pick up Lenny Fournette or Kareem Hunt to see if they wind up as the starter in Baltimore. If they get signed by the Ravens, fire them up this week.
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Puka Nacua, Rams (7%). Rocket science, right? You catch 10 of 15 targets and put up over 100 yards in your rookie debut and we’re interested.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (31%). I’m going to keep touting him until he’s no longer eligible. He’s a bona fide fantasy starter tied to an ascending quarterback. And they play the Chiefs this week. Can you imagine a shootout?
Robert Woods, Texans (4%). This is a floor play, but it feels safe. Woods is the primary wideout for the Texans and he’s facing off against an absolutely dreadful Colts secondary.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (5%). Dude saw 10 targets in Week 1. Ten. If he’s going to see that kind of volume at tight end, we HAVE to pay attention.
Hunter Henry, Patriots (16%). I continue to believe Henry is the Patriots tight end you want, not Mike Gesicki. He’s as good of a bet as anyone to score in a given week. In Week 2, he plays on Sunday night against a Dolphins team that gave up a score to Donald Parham last week.