Bold Predictions for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Fantasy football, like many industries, is plagued by “conventional wisdom.” But conventional wisdom is often wrong. Going against the grain, at the right time, is how you win championships. Below are twelve “bold predictions” which, if they pan out, could steer your fantasy team toward a title this season. And if they don’t work out, well, there’s a reason these predictions were bold.
We had several laudable calls last year:
We predicted Mike Evans would be a Top-20 wideout. Last season, Evans wasn’t even being drafted among the top 30 WRs. We pointed out that Evans had finished as a WR2 or better every year of his career, and had 9 straight 1,000 yard seasons. Well, make it 10. He had 1200+ yards last year to go along with 79 catches and 13 touchdowns, good enough for a WR5 finish in half-point PPR leagues. You’re welcome!
We predicted that Russell Wilson would finish as a QB1. Wilson was well on track to finish as a QB1 until the Broncos benched him for the final two games to avoid paying him certain guarantees in 2024.
We steered you toward Trey McBride as 2023’s sleeper tight end. McBride finished as the PPR TE7, despite playing fewer than half the snaps for the first third of the season. Once Zach Ertz got hurt, McBridge’s PT increased, and over the final 12 games, he posted 7 top-12 finishes. In fact, he only had 2 games where he finished worse than TE 14. He was a high floor, high ceiling option.
In other words, we led you to difference-makers who helped you compete. Here are our bold predictions for 2024:
Jordan Love finishes outside the top 10 quarterbacks. Why it’s a bold call: Love finished as QB5 last year and tossed 32 touchdowns in his debut season as a starter. He’s surrounded by lots of young weapons in Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, and Luke Musgrave.
Why it could happen: Look, I’ll admit that this is a call that could easily blow up in my face. By all accounts, Love seems to be a young, ascending player. But this is a bold predictions column, so let’s be bold! In my view, Love benefitted from a lot of touchdown luck last season, and QB touchdowns aren’t sticky year over year. Yardage-wise, he was consistent, but he wasn’t great. Would you believe it if I told you he only had two 300-yard passing games last year? He was buoyed by the touchdowns. And with the way Matt LaFleur runs his offenses, I tend to think that several of those short-yardage touchdowns are going to go to free agent signee Josh Jacobs and third rounder Marshawn Lloyd this season. In short, this is a touchdown-regression call. The offense is going to be more balanced, which means fewer passing scores and more rushing scores.
This year’s #1 wide receiver in fantasy points is… Ja’Marr Chase. Why it’s a bold call: Chase has never finished higher than WR5, and hasn’t finished in the top 10 in either of the past two seasons.
Why it will happen: Because he’s awesome. Because he’s fully healthy. Because Joe Burrow is fully healthy. Because Tee Higgins is fully healthy, which should take defensive attention away from him. And, perhaps most importantly, because Tyler Boyd is gone, which will free up play-caller Zac Taylor to move him around the formation, including into the slot. Look at CeeDee Lamb last year, who finished as the WR1. He played X receiver, he played Z receiver, he played slot. It makes it harder for defenses to stop if you if they don’t know where you’re going to line up. This dude is hardly ever going to come off the field, and Taylor is going to find creative ways to get him the ball. Monster season incoming.This year’s post-hype sleeper is … Javonte Williams. Why it’s a bold call: Everyone has bailed on Javonte Williams. He’s going outside the top-32 running backs on Yahoo!, which means that even some backups are going before him. That’s crazy to me. I say he finishes, at worst, as a RB2.
Why it could happen: He’s still plenty Young at only 24 years old. Last year, he was coming off a torn ACL and still rounding his way into shape. Fully healthy, he should be better in 2024. Another thing to be excited about is that Sean Payton has a long history of having a great running game, and Williams is the presumed favorite to lead the team in carries (though as a Notre Dame homer, I do love fifth rounder Audric Estime). The team is generally devoid of established playmakers aside from Courtland Sutton, and is breaking in a rookie quarterback. It would not be at all surprising if they relied even more on the running game than they did last year. Don’t forget how this guy was viewed as a prospect: a Marshawn Lynch-sort who never went down on first contact. That guy is still in there somewhere. Buy the dip. You’re getting him at RB3 cost. I love him for the “zero-RB” truthers.Rashee Rice finishes as a Top-20 wide receiver. Why it’s a bold call: Rice is presently going as WR38. Fantasy managers appear to be scared off by his legal issues this off-season. But the fact is, his court date isn’t until December. It’s unlikely that the league imposes discipline before the legal process plays out. If he gets suspended, it’s more likely that suspension happens in 2025, not this season.
Why it could happen: Last year, Rice finished as a WR2 as a rookie. I’m even more bullish on him as a sophomore. We’ve seen him do it before, most players improve from year 1 to year 2, and he’s playing with arguably the best QB in football. You’re getting WR2 value at WR4 cost.Gus Edwards finishes as a RB2 or better. Why it’s bold: Edwards has never finished among the top 24 running backs in PPR leagues at any point in his career.
Why it will happen: Because Greg Roman offenses run, run, and run some more. There’s very little competition on the Chargers depth chart (unless you’re a believer in JK Dobbins off a torn Achilles or sixth round pick Kimani Vidal), and Edwards already knows the Roman offense from his days in Baltimore. The team is likely to run a ton given their dearth of weapons in the passing game. It would not be at all surprising to see Edwards propelled to a top-20 finish in the same way that Jamaal Williams got there in 2022 and Raheem Mostert did in 2023: on the strength of double-digit touchdowns.Kyler Murray finishes as a top-5 quarterback. Why it’s bold: Murray has only finished as a top 5 quarterback once in his 5-year career. He finished 2022 as QB19 and 2023 as QB27.
Why it will happen: Because Kyler Murray has finished no worse than QB6 in every season where he’s played at least 16 games. Because Kyler was great after returning from a torn ACL last year. Because he’s a legit rushing threat. Because the team drafted Marvin Harrison this off-season, giving Murray the best set of weapons he’s ever had to work with in Harrison, Trey McBride, and James Conner. Pick a reason, any reason.Travis Kelce finishes outside the Top-5 tight ends. Why it’s bold: Kelce has finished as a top-3 tight end for eight straight seasons. He’s amazing. He might be the best ever.
Why it could happen: No athlete ever beats father time. Most athletes decline significantly at 30. Kelce turns 35 after the first month of the season. I’m always going to bet against older athletes, no matter how good they’ve been in the past. At the end of last season, he started to show signs of age. In the second half of the regular season, he scored only one touchdown. And over the final 4 games, he never finished higher than TE20.Justin Fields starts more games for the Pittsburgh Steelers than Russell Wilson. Why it’s a bold call: Wilson was promised the starting job before he signed with Pittsburgh. But that promise, at best, guarantees him Week 1. I’ve never been a Russell Wilson fan, and his decline over the past several seasons has been obvious. After posting four top-3 QB finishes from 2014 to 2019, Wilson hasn’t even sniffed the top 10 since 2020.
Why it will happen: Despite my disdain for Wilson, this call is more about my belief in Fields. Arthur Smith likes to run an offense based on a mobile quarterback, and Fields presents a greater threat in that department than Wilson does at this point in their respective careers. Plus, early reports on Fields out of Steelers camp have been positive. On a team with few legitimate weapons, PIttsburgh might need Fields just to keep defenses honest.Kyle Pitts posts his first-ever Top-3 fantasy finish among tight ends. Why it’s bold: Because he’s never done it before, and hasn’t even been top 12 since his rookie season. He’s currently being drafted as TE8, so this would be a significant bump up from his draft capital.
Why it will happen: Because former head coach Arthur Smith is gone, and because quarterback Kirk Cousins has arrived. It’s that simple. Drake London got a significant bump because of Smith’s departure and Cousins’ arrival, but Pitts hasn’t seen a similar boost. I don’t get it.De’Von Achane finishes as the fantasy RB1. Why it’s bold: Because he’s under 190 pounds, is a part-time player, only played in 11 games last year due to injury, and is being drafted outside the top-10 running backs.
Why it could happen: Because he’s electric. He averaged 7.8 yards per carry, which is the most ever for a running back over 100 carries. He’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. In every game where he received more than 10 carries, he finished among the top 8 fantasy backs. In his first game with double-digit touches, he put up an astounding 55 (!) fantasy points. He’s a good pass catcher, as well, and saw 4 or more targets in nearly half of his games. And perhaps most importantly, he averages a touchdown per game for his career. He has the sort of upside that is necessary to finish as the overall RB1, but he’s coming at a much cheaper cost than the other guys (Breece Hall, Bijan, CMC) that are legit challengers for that title.Cole Kmet finishes as a top-10 tight end. Why it’s bold: Kmet is being drafted outside the top 15 tight ends. People seem to be concerned by a rookie QB and the addition of more weapons in Chicago this off-season.
Why it will happen: Because he was a top-7 TE in PPR each of the past 2 seasons. If he was able to produce with Justin Fields (and whatever crummy backups Chicago trotted out when Fields wasn’t available), somehow I find it hard to believe it will be more difficult for him to produce with #1 overall pick Caleb Williams under center.Drake London outscores Davante Adams. Why it’s bold: Adams is getting drafted in the middle of Round 2 and London goes almost a full round later. Adams finished as a top 10 PPR WR last year, and finished as top-3 WR in every season from 2018-2022 where he played more than 12 games. In contrast, London has never finished among the top 30 WRs, nor had as many as 1,000 yards or 5 touchdowns in a season.
Why it will happen: Wide receivers decline with age, especially after they turn 30. Adams turns 32 (!) during the course of this season. He might have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL (either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell), and he’s got more target competition than he had last year now that the Raiders have added Brock Bowers via the NFL draft. Conversely, London is entering his third year in the league (traditionally believed to be the year when wide receivers make the leap), has top 10 draft capital, and, like Kyle Pitts, is rid of Arthur Smith’s nonsensical play-calling and now has Kirk Cousins under center. London’s advanced metrics have always been good, but now he has the right coaching and quarterback to finally unlock his potential.