Don't Overlook Age When Drafting
If you scour the interwebs, surely you will find articles about how running backs decline at a certain age, and wide receivers as well. You should rely on your analyst of choice to determine when that “age cliff” occurs, but for me, I tend to avoid running backs who are 28 or older, and wide receivers 30 and older. Last year, we suggested that you avoid running backs like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette, and wide receivers like Odell Beckham, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, and DeVante Parker.
Below you will find some big-name running backs and wideouts who are above the magic age thresholds this season. Ages are listed as of the start of the season:
RUNNING BACKS
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers. I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news, but CMC turns 28 this year. No, I’m not fading the best asset in fantasy, but I’m just pointing out that he does fit the criterion. For what it’s worth, pass-catching running backs tend to age more gracefully than their counterparts who are exclusively early-down-bangers.
Derrick Henry, Ravens. Henry is playing behind perhaps the best offensive line he’s ever had… and yet I’m concerned. He’s 30 years old this season, and showed signs of decline last year. It’s hard to determine whether his decline was due to age, the putrid Tennessee offensive line, or the lack of other playmakers around him. I think it’s probably a combination of the three. And if age played any role, it’s likely to be even more pronounced this season. Henry has never been much of a pass catcher, so any decline running the ball is going to take a major toll on his overall fantasy usefulness. At his early second round ADP, he’s an easy fade for me.
Joe Mixon, Texans. Mixon has slowly lost his effectiveness over the past couple seasons, leading the Bengals to slash his salary in 2023 and trade him for peanuts in 2024. Cincinnati was prepared to cut him, but Houston swooped in at the last moment and gave up a late round pick for the 28-year-old. The Texans seem to have a good offense, but it’s not like Mixon was playing with a bunch of bums in Cincinnati, and he still managed only one 100-yard game last season. It feels like he’s being drafted at his ceiling at his third round ADP.
Alvin Kamara, Saints. Kamara is 29, and isn’t the same player he once was. Still, the Saints really don’t have much offensively outside of him and Chris Olave, so I expect that he’ll still be plenty involved in the passing game. Despite his advanced age, I’m comfortable with him at his Round 5 ADP.
Aaron Jones, Vikings. Jones is 29 (turns 30 in December), has always been a part time player, and has only rushed for 1,000 yards once in his past 3 seasons. He finished outside the top 36 running backs last year. You have to wonder if that’s a sign of things to come, or was solely a result of the injury he dealt with last season.
James Conner, Cardinals. Conner is 29, and Arizona drafted his long-term replacement in Trey Benson this year. Still, all early indications from camp are that Conner is entrenched atop the depth chart. At an ADP in Round 6, I’m probably buying.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins. Before leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season with 18, Mostert only had one other season with more than 3 rushing touchdowns. That’s pretty significant for a guy that’s 32 years old. The age, and lack of production before last year, has me shying away from Mostert.
Nick Chubb, Browns. Chubb has been an amazing talent over the course of his career, but he’s 28 (turning 29 in December) and coming off a serious knee injury. I just can’t get excited about drafting him this year unless I’m getting him at a serious bargain as my RB4, where the opportunity cost isn’t great.
Austin Ekeler, Commanders. Ekeler looked like he was running in quicksand last year. Was it due to injury, or has father time caught up to him at age 29?
Gus Edwards, Chargers. Like Ekeler, Edwards is also 29, but I’m a bit more bullish on Edwards. Edwards projects to be the lead back for a run first offense led by Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. The Bolts are going to run, run, and run some more. Maybe I’m buying too much into situation, but it’s not hard to see him leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns this year. It’s essentially the Derrick Henry situation, but available to you at a steep discount.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys. Zeke looked like toast last year in a split backfield role for the Patriots, but he returns to Dallas this year to be the lead dog again at age 29. It’s tough to get excited about the role, but at cost, he’s probably a reasonable RB3 that you can rely on for modest fantasy production if one of your top two guys gets hurt.
Jamaal Williams, Saints. Some may be wondering why I’m talking about Jamaal Williams at all, as he seems well off the fantasy radar following a nondescript initial season in New Orleans. But the negative news surrounding Kendre Miller’s inability to stay off the trainer’s table has me thinking that Williams may still be the Saints’ goal-line back in 2024. He’s 29, and there’s little reason to believe that the Saints will be much better offensively this year than they were last year, but it’s still theoretically possible that the Saints could have more goal line opportunities this year just based on randomness.
The verdict: I’m good with CMC, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, and Gus Edwards at cost. I’m passing on Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, and Raheem Mostert at their ADPs. I’m fine with Ezekiel Elliott and Austin Ekeler as your RB3, and I don’t have strong feelings on Nick Chubb or Jamaal Williams.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins. Hill was just named the #1 player in the NFL in the NFL’s Top 100 countdown. But can he keep it up at age 30? Much like Davante Adams, who had his age-30 season last year, I expect Hill to give us a quality season, but not at the top-3 WR overall levels we’ve seen in the past. Hill is a speed-based WR, and speed is often one of the first skills to go. I would not be at all surprised if Hill has a good season, but I can’t justify the current Top-5 overall cost.
Davante Adams, Raiders. I was down on Adams heading into last season based on the age, so I’m definitely doubling down on that take this year. He’s 31, and turns 32 in December. He was a top-3 WR every year from 2020-2022, but last season saw a bit of a dip in production. He finished as WR10 in PPR points, which is still plenty good, but if he sees a similar dip this year, it doesn’t justify his second round ADP.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers. I was banging the table for Evans last season, as he’s finished as a WR2 or better every season of his career. He rewarded the faith we placed in him, finishing as a top-12 WR for fantasy. But at age 31, and going in the top 3 rounds of most drafts, it’s just hard for me to make the plunge this year. Big WRs don’t tend to age gracefully. I’d rather go with a younger player in that area of the draft.
Stefon Diggs, Texans. Diggs, who turns 31 around Thanksgiving, was jettisoned by the Bills this off-season for a second round pick, and now faces more target competition than he ever had in Buffalo. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if Nico Collins or Tank Dell are just plain better than him at this point. Plus, his decline in production down the stretch last year has to make you wonder if he’s lost that “it” factor.
Cooper Kupp, Rams. Kupp is 31, and his body started breaking down due to injury last year. Plus, would you believe it if I told you Kupp only has 2 seasons in his career where he’s finished as a Top 20 WR? And that the most recent was in 2021? That’s pretty far back in the rear view.
Amari Cooper, Browns. Cooper turns 30 this year, but also faces one of the easiest schedules for wide receivers in the NFL. On balance, I’m probably buying.
Keenan Allen, Chargers. Allen is 32 years old, battled through injury last year, is changing teams for the first time in his career, and has more target competition than he’s ever had. It’s hard to envision this going well.
DeAndre Hopkins, Titans. Hopkins has been a low end WR2 for the past several seasons. Now he’s 32, and has opened training camp with an injury. This feels like the beginning of the end.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks. Lockett turns 32 before the end of September. His decline started last year, his first season since 2017 where he didn’t finish as a WR2 or better. He ended the 2023 season as PPR WR32, and we’d be lucky to get a similar result this season. There’s reason for optimism with new OC Ryan Grubb’s explosive offense coming to town, but I still have concern that we’re not likely to see Lockett as a viable fantasy starter again.
Brandin Cooks, Cowboys. Cooks hasn’t finished better than a WR4 in either of the past two seasons (and that includes playing for the explosive Cowboys offense last year). He turns 31 before the end of September, and there’s little reason to believe he’s going to return to his days of fantasy stardom.
Adam Thielen, Panthers. Thielen defied the odds last year with an awesome start to the fantasy season despite being 33 years old. But at age 34, with significantly more target competition (Diontae Johnson, first round pick Xavier Legette, and second round pick Jonathon Brooks), it’s hard to see the magic returning. Despite his hot start, Thielen didn’t have a single top-20 performance in the final two-thirds of the season last year. He’s an easy guy to avoid in 2024.
Odell Beckham, Dolphins. I’m surprised people are still interested in this guy, as he hasn’t been a relevant player since the Trump administration. Seriously. He hasn’t been a top-25 WR since 2019 (way back before anyone in the world had heard of COVID). Beckham is 31, and turns 32 just after Halloween. There’s no reason to roster him this season.
The verdict: I’m out on Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, and Stefon Diggs at cost, but could be talked into them if the price drops. I’m interested in Amari Cooper. I’m not drafting Odell Beckham, Adam Thielen, Nuk Hopkins, or Brandin Cooks regardless of the cost. I can be talked into Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett given their relatively low ADPs, but I’m not expecting better than WR3 production.